Amakuru

Mu bihe byashize, amakuru y’ubukungu muri Amerika, harimo akazi n’ifaranga, yagabanutse. Niba ifaranga rigabanutse ryihuta, birashobora kwihutisha inzira yo kugabanya inyungu. Haracyariho itandukaniro hagati y'ibiteganijwe ku isoko no gutangira kugabanuka kw'inyungu, ariko kuba ibintu bifitanye isano bishobora guteza imbere politiki ya Banki nkuru y’igihugu.
Isesengura ryibiciro bya zahabu n'umuringa
Ku rwego rwa macro, Umuyobozi wa Banki nkuru y’igihugu, Powell yavuze ko igipimo cy’inyungu cya politiki ya Federasiyo “cyinjiye mu ntera,” kandi ibiciro bya zahabu mpuzamahanga byongeye kugera ku rwego rwo hejuru. Abacuruzi bemezaga ko ijambo rya Powell ryoroheje, kandi ko igipimo cy’inyungu cyagabanijwe mu 2024 nticyahagaritswe. Umusaruro w’inguzanyo z’imari ya Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika hamwe n’idolari ry’Amerika warushijeho kugabanuka, bituma ibiciro mpuzamahanga bya zahabu na feza. Umubare muto w’ifaranga ry’amezi menshi watumye abashoramari bavuga ko Banki nkuru y’igihugu izagabanya inyungu z’inyungu muri Gicurasi 2024 cyangwa mbere yaho.
Mu ntangiriro z'Ukuboza 2023, Shenyin Wanguo Futures yatangaje ko disikuru z'abayobozi ba Banki nkuru y’igihugu zananiwe gukumira ibyifuzo by’isoko ryoroherezwa, kandi isoko ryabanje gushimangira igabanywa ry’ibiciro guhera muri Werurwe 2024, bituma ibiciro bya zahabu mpuzamahanga bigera ku rwego rwo hejuru. Ariko urebye kuba ufite ibyiringiro birenze kubiciro bidakabije, habayeho guhinduka no kugabanuka. Bitewe n’imibare y’ubukungu idahwitse muri Amerika ndetse n’igabanuka ry’amadolari y’Amerika, isoko ryateje imbere ko Banki nkuru y’igihugu yarangije izamuka ry’inyungu kandi ishobora kugabanya igipimo cy’inyungu mbere y’igihe giteganijwe, bigatuma ibiciro mpuzamahanga bya zahabu na feza bikomeza komeza. Mugihe izamuka ry’inyungu rirangiye, amakuru y’ubukungu muri Amerika agenda agabanuka buhoro buhoro, amakimbirane ya geopolitike ku isi abaho kenshi, kandi ikigo gihindagurika cy’ibiciro by’icyuma kikazamuka.
Biteganijwe ko igiciro mpuzamahanga cya zahabu kizahindura amateka mu mateka mu 2024, bitewe n’igabanuka ry’igipimo cy’amadolari y’Amerika hamwe n’ibiteganijwe kugabanuka ku nyungu na Banki nkuru y’igihugu, ndetse n’impamvu za geopolitiki. Biteganijwe ko igiciro mpuzamahanga cya zahabu kizaguma hejuru y’amadolari 2000 kuri buri une, nkuko byemezwa n’abashinzwe ibicuruzwa muri ING.
Nubwo igabanuka ryamafaranga yatunganijwe, umusaruro wumuringa murugo ukomeje kwiyongera vuba. Muri rusange icyifuzo cyo hasi mu Bushinwa kirahagaze neza kandi kiratera imbere, hamwe no gushyiramo amashanyarazi bifata umuvuduko mwinshi mu ishoramari ry’amashanyarazi, kugurisha neza kwangiza ikirere no kuzamura umusaruro. Kwiyongera kw'igipimo cy’ingufu nshya biteganijwe ko bizashimangira umuringa mu nganda zikoreshwa mu gutwara abantu. Isoko riteganya ko igihe cyo kugabanya inyungu za Banki nkuru y’igihugu cyagabanutse mu 2024 gishobora gutinda kandi ibarura rishobora kuzamuka vuba, ibyo bikaba bishobora gutuma intege nke z’igihe gito z’ibiciro by’umuringa ndetse n’imihindagurikire y’urwego muri rusange. Goldman Sachs yavuze mu cyerekezo cyayo cya 2024 ko biteganijwe ko ibiciro by’umuringa biteganijwe kurenga $ 10000 kuri toni.

Impamvu Zibiciro Byamateka
Kuva mu ntangiriro z'Ukuboza 2023, ibiciro mpuzamahanga bya zahabu byazamutseho 12%, mu gihe ibiciro by’imbere mu gihugu byazamutseho 16%, birenga inyungu z’ibyiciro byose by’imitungo y’imbere mu gihugu. Byongeye kandi, kubera ubucuruzi bwiza bwa tekinike nshya ya zahabu, ibicuruzwa bishya bya zahabu bigenda bitoneshwa nabaguzi bo murugo, cyane cyane igisekuru gishya cyubwiza bukunda abakobwa bakiri bato. Niyihe mpamvu ituma zahabu ya kera yongeye kwozwa kandi yuzuye imbaraga?
Imwe ni uko zahabu ari ubutunzi bw'iteka. Amafaranga y'ibihugu bitandukanye ku isi n'ubutunzi bw'ifaranga mu mateka ni bitabarika, kandi kuzamuka no kugwa nabyo birahita. Mu mateka maremare yubwihindurize, ibishishwa, silik, zahabu, ifeza, umuringa, ibyuma, nibindi bikoresho byose byabaye ibikoresho byifaranga. Imiraba yoza umusenyi, gusa ibona zahabu nyayo. Gusa zahabu yarwanyije umubatizo wigihe, ingoma, ubwoko, numuco, bihinduka "ubutunzi bwamafaranga". Zahabu ya pre Qin Ubushinwa nu Bugereki na Roma ya kera iracyari zahabu kugeza na nubu.
Iya kabiri nukwagura isoko ryo gukoresha zahabu hamwe nikoranabuhanga rishya. Mu bihe byashize, uburyo bwo gukora ibicuruzwa bya zahabu bwari bworoshye, kandi kwakira abakobwa bakiri bato byari bike. Mu myaka yashize, kubera iterambere ryiterambere rya tekinoroji, zahabu ya 3D na 5D, zahabu 5G, zahabu ya kera, zahabu ikomeye, zahabu ya emam, zahabu inlay, zahabu zahabu nibindi bicuruzwa bishya biratangaje, byombi bigezweho kandi biremereye, biganisha kumyambarire yigihugu Ubushinwa-Igikoni, kandi gikundwa cyane na rubanda.
Icya gatatu ni uguhinga diyama kugirango ifashe mugukoresha zahabu. Mu myaka yashize, diyama ihingwa mu buryo bwa gihanga yungukiwe n’iterambere ry’ikoranabuhanga kandi yihuta cyane igana ku bucuruzi, bituma igabanuka ryihuse ry’ibiciro by’igurisha ndetse bigira ingaruka zikomeye kuri gahunda y’ibiciro bya diyama karemano. Nubwo amarushanwa hagati ya diyama yubukorikori na diyama karemano aracyagoye kubitandukanya, mubyukuri bituma abaguzi benshi batagura diyama yubukorikori cyangwa diyama karemano, ahubwo bagura ibicuruzwa bishya bya zahabu.
Iya kane ni amafaranga yisi yose arenze urugero, kwagura imyenda, kwerekana agaciro kuzigama no gushimira ibiranga zahabu. Ingaruka zo kugabanuka kw'ifaranga rikabije ni ifaranga rikabije no kugabanuka gukomeye kwingufu zo kugura ifaranga. Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe n’intiti y’amahanga Francisco Garcia Parames bwerekana ko mu myaka 90 ishize, imbaraga zo kugura amadolari y’Amerika zagiye zigabanuka, aho hasigaye igiceri 4 gusa kiva ku madorari 1 y’Amerika mu 1913 kugeza 2003, ugereranyije buri mwaka wagabanutseho 3,64%. Ibinyuranye, imbaraga zo kugura zahabu zirahagaze neza kandi zerekanye kuzamuka mumyaka yashize. Mu myaka 30 ishize, izamuka ry’ibiciro bya zahabu bivugwa mu madorari y’Amerika ryahujwe ahanini n’umuvuduko w’ifaranga ryinshi mu bihugu byateye imbere, bivuze ko zahabu yarenze igabanuka ry’ifaranga ry’Amerika.
Icya gatanu, banki nkuru zo ku isi zirimo kongera ububiko bwa zahabu. Kwiyongera cyangwa kugabanuka kwa zahabu muri banki nkuru yisi yose bigira ingaruka zikomeye kumasoko nibisabwa ku isoko rya zahabu. Nyuma y’ihungabana mpuzamahanga ry’imari mu 2008, banki nkuru ku isi zagiye zifata zahabu. Kugeza mu gihembwe cya gatatu cya 2023, banki nkuru zo ku isi zigeze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mateka mu kubika zahabu. Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, igipimo cya zahabu mu bubiko bw’ivunjisha mu Bushinwa kiracyari gito. Andi mabanki yo hagati yiyongereye cyane mububiko harimo Singapore, Polonye, ​​Ubuhinde, Uburasirazuba bwo hagati, n'utundi turere.